Modelling Options for Policy Impact Analysis on African Dairy Farms

Abstract

Studies on the priorities for agricultural research in Eastern and Central Africa concluded that milk is the most important commodity for research and development in the region, based on its potential contribution to the agricultural GDP. It has been presumed that, the right policies, marketing systems and technical support must be sought for dairy development in Africa. In order to determine the right development pattern, appropriate analytical tools must be applied. The TIPICAL (Technology Impact Policy Impact model) was used to analyse the impact of different policies on two typical dairy farming systems in Uganda, which account for more than 70% of milk produced in the country. Seven influential policy areas were also identified: provision of veterinary services, consumption promotion, marketing promotion, input provision, credit access improvement, milk quality improvement and genetic improvement. In general, the policy impacts are very little on farms with local cows but can be magnified up to threefold, if the farms have graded cows. Policies which improve farmers’ accessibility to markets have the greatest impacts. The results obtained from this model were compared to those using the EXTRAPOLATE model. This comparison shows that both models could complement each other in analysing policy impacts on African dairy farms. However, differences in results from the models indicate that more focus should be made on farmers’ willingness to adopt new technology.