The Comparison of GDP Strategies Forecasting in Romania

dc.contributor.author	Bratu Simionescu, Mihaela
dc.date.accessioned	2015-11-02T11:29:17Z
dc.date.available	2015-11-02T11:29:17Z
dc.date.issued	2012
dc.identifier.issn	1584-0409
dc.identifier.uri	http://10.11.10.50/xmlui/handle/123456789/3552
dc.description	Annals of “Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati Fascicle I. Economics and Applied Informatics	en_US
dc.description.abstract	The aggregates, like GDP, can be forecasted using two different strategies, the criterion of predictions’ accuracy being used to select the best strategy. The aim of this paper is to find out what is the best strategy to be used in predicting GDP in Romania. In this study, for data series of GDP and its components for the Romanian economy in 1996-2011, we have come to the conclusion that the direct forecasting strategy is the most suitable one in making one-step-ahead predictions. Another possible strategy is based on the aggregation of GDP components using constant or variable weights, but in the case of Romania it is not recommended. The one-step-ahead forecasts are better than those on a horizon of 3 years. The selection of the best forecast has an important contribution in reducing the degree of uncertainty in forecasting.	en_US
dc.language.iso	en	en_US
dc.publisher	“Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati	en_US
dc.subject	Accuracy	en_US
dc.subject	Disaggregation over variables	en_US
dc.subject	Strategy of prediction	en_US
dc.title	The Comparison of GDP Strategies Forecasting in Romania	en_US